30+ MPs – that’s all Anwar Ibrahim needs to be the probable Prime Minister
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KUALA LUMPUR, March 14 – If there is one name that has pushed Barisan
Nasional leaders out of their comfort zone and caused confusion and anxiety,
it is Anwar Ibrahim.
When he said on Tuesday that the Opposition should be referred to as the
government-in-waiting, he was not referring to five years down the road. He
was referring to the next few weeks or months.
He knows that if he manages to convince 30 Members of Parliament to cross
over, the government of Abdullah Ahmad Badawi will fall.
Since the PKR-DAP-PAS alliance that he cobbled together won big on March 8,
taking 52% of the popular vote in Peninsular Malaysia and snaring 82 of the
222 seats in parliament, Anwar has become the most mentioned name in Umno
circles.
Along the corridors of powers and in Umno circles, there is a belief that
the former deputy prime minister will not rest and settle for second-best,
not with the momentum of being a reformer on his side.
He knows that the troops of the BN war machine are demoralised and its
leaders still reeling from the psychological scars of Election 2008. He will
go for the kill, rattling the coalition’s cage, creating the impression of
an inevitable wave that some fickle-minded BN MPs will be tempted to abandon
the BN ship and join the Opposition.
An Umno division chief from Pahang, who requested anonymity because of the
sensitive nature of the information, said: “The talk on the ground is which
MPs Anwar is going to approach to join PKR. Everyone says that Sabah and
Sarawak MPs are being targeted. But I think everyone except the PM and DPM
are targets.”
Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir, in a letter asking Abdullah to resign, noted that a
move has been made to woo BN representatives to join the Opposition. The fea
r of crossovers is palpable.
Among the senior leaders of BN, the question being asked is this: who can
take on Anwar?
Increasingly the view is that no one individual is strong enough to
withstand the momentum of the former deputy prime minister. Abdullah is like
a general who has been badly wounded in battle. He needs time to recuperate
from the deep wounds he suffered – time which he may not have.
If Abdullah steps down and Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak takes over, the latter
will be vulnerable to a personal and potentially costly onslaught by Anwar.
During the election campaign, Najib was assailed by Anwar over the murder of
the Mongolian model and over a few defence deals. Expect the ferociousness
of the attacks to multiply if Najib becomes Number 1 now.
Even the return of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad could be counterproductive.
The Malaysian public believes that Anwar was wronged by Mahathir. This was
evident during the election when attempts to paint the former DPM as a
charlatan, racist and chameleon failed miserably.
So who can stop Anwar?
Professor Shamsul Amri Baharuddin, a political commentator, says that only a
united Umno and BN can hold the line against the Anwar-led Opposition.
“Anwar is pressing BN at 20 different points. Only if they are strong and
united can they survive. But can they stay united?” he wondered.
The next few weeks will be important. If the new Cabinet catches the
imagination of Malaysians, the morale of the ground troops will improve and
it will boost the confidence of BN’s leaders.
Otherwise, the grumbling against Abdullah will grow into a crescendo and it
may embolden Dr Mahathir or Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah to step forward to “save
the party” – a situation which could lead to a party split like in 1987.
Such a scenario will be heaven-sent for Anwar.
Umno politicians believe that any upheaval in Umno or BN will convince the
weak-hearted that it may be prudent to cross the Parliament floor.
Within the higher reaches of Umno, the strategy appears to be to rally
around Abdullah, go down to the ground and get the troops ready for war. But
for Umno and BN to prevail over Anwar, they will need a few conditions to be
met.
1) Abdullah must be able to hush his band of critics in Umno.
2) Abdullah must be able to inspire the troops on the ground.
3) Abdullah must be a strong leader and reform his party and the country.
4) Anwar and the Opposition need to commit a few major mistakes.
5) For the public to fall out of love quickly with the reform-minded
Opposition.
http://themalaysianinsider.com/mni/anwars-game-plan-strikes-fear-in-umno.html
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Anwar Ibrahim – Man of the Match
By Baradan Kuppusamy
KUALA LUMPUR, Mar 14 (IPS) – Anwar Ibrahim, the man credited
with radically changing the political landscape of Malaysia, could not
contest the Mar. 8 general elections that saw the ruling coalition lose five
state governments and its long-held two-thirds majority in parliament.
There is a story in Ibrahim’s having been crippled by a five-year-ban on
contesting elections, as a result of having had to serve time in jail on
criminal charges, trumped-up by his political opponents.
But the former deputy prime minister fought his way back to the political
centre-stage and overcame ten years of virulent government propaganda
mounted against him to forge an alliance and establish a powerful opposition
in parliament.
“He is clearly the man of the hour, he made it possible,” said Steven Gan,
editor of the independent online news provider Malaysiakini.com. “He glued
together a viable opposition, set a common theme and led the opposition to
victory.”
After Saturday’s opposition successes politics in Malaysia will never be the
same again and it was made possible through Ibrahim’s multi-racial People’s
Justice Party which won the highest number of seats on the opposition
benches in Parliament.
Together with the pro-Chinese Democratic Action Party and the Islamist Pan
Malaysian Islamic Party or PAS, the opposition commands 82 seats, just 30
seats short of capturing the government.
It is the best ever showing by the opposition since independence in 1957 and
heralds a new era of transparency, accountability and clean government that
Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi promised but never delivered. The voters
punished him, sending his ministers and his state governments falling like
ninepins.
“He has made a big comeback and has given multi-racial politics a firm
foothold,” said Gan. “Now a two-party system of politics is possible not a
single domineering entity that is corrupt and dictatorial.”
During an interview with IPS, Ibrahim pledged to defend and promote
free-market economy, foreign investment and continue the development
process. But he emphasised that progress and wealth will now benefit the
poor of all races, not the rich and ruling elite.
“We are confident that under our leadership and working closely with our
partners (in the opposition) we will begin to implement policies to ensure a
stronger and more vibrant economy in Malaysia,” he said.
“We will ensure that investor confidence remains strong during the
transition period and also to identify areas of concern that our new
governments (state governments) will address in enhancing and improving
their operations and performance in Malaysia,” he said.
The opposition is now busy forming coalition governments in the five states
it won and is promising a new economic agenda to the people, mainly by
eliminating corruption. “We will have zero tolerance for corruption and this
will have a big impact in reducing business costs and build confidence in
small and medium enterprises,” Ibrahim vowed.
“We also plan to divorce government employees from doing business with the
government, thereby reducing incentives for cronyism and insider deals which
are plaguing the current administration,” he said.
Ibrahim’s comeback is astounding, considering that he spent six years in
prison, unfairly accused and convicted on corruption and sodomy charges –
now proven to be motivated by a political conspiracy at the highest levels
involving judges, crony tycoons and political leaders.
A former Islamist student activist who turned Malay nationalist, Ibrahim has
successfully reinvented himself as a leader of all of Malaysia’s races and
campaigned on a reformist agenda.
“The result of the election is testament to Anwar’s acceptability as a
leader to all Malaysians because his agenda is fair and just and involves
all races, especially the poor,” said Ragu Kesavan, a human rights lawyer.
How did Ibrahim manage it? What is his winning formula? Political analysts
say a key was his success in persuading the Islamist PAS party to drop its
fiery rhetoric demanding a theocratic Islamic state — an agenda that
usually drives the all important Chinese voters, about 30 percent of the
electorate, into the arms of the ruling National Front.
He then forged a loose opposition alliance of three parties, allowing each
to mobilise its supporters but campaign on a common theme, attacking rising
prices of food and fuel, cronyism in the ruling United Malays National
Organisation (UMNO) party and equality for all races.
Religion, Islamic theocracy or parochial and racial issues did not figure in
the opposition campaign this time, giving no ammunition to the government to
exploit. Ibrahim’s message of change resonated with ordinary Malaysians
irrespective of their race or religion, observers said, because it touched
on rising food and fuel prices which affected all people. They said people
were aware of the real danger of their prosperous country going bankrupt
through the pursuit of narrow policies. “Voters voted against Badawi because
of his inability to deliver on the promises he made in 2004, including the
promise to fight corruption, the promise to reform the police force, the
promise to be a prime minister for all ethnic groups, and the promise to
improve the civil service,” said political researcher Ong Kian Ming.
Chinese and Indians, descendents of immigrants under British colonial rule,
who have long felt treated as second-class citizens rallied to Ibrahim’s “we
are all equal” banner.
He also won over urban Malay voters who had not benefited from the New
Economic Policy (NEP) — a Malays first affirmative action policy — by
saying the benefits had been hijacked by the Malay elites.
Early in the campaign voters were wary of Ibrahim’s reformist agenda and the
turnout at his campaign rallies seldom reached 1,000 people, but midway
during the 13-day campaign the turnout steadily swelled to over 30,000.
Although Ibrahim did not contest, he is the de-facto opposition leader. He
is unlikely to formalise his position by contesting in a by-election and
return to parliament as opposition leader.
Pressed on this, Ibrahim told IPS: ”I rather look at myself as an
alternative government or a government-in-waiting than an opposition
leader.”
He also surprisingly did not rule out accepting smaller political parties
which are now members of the ruling National Front into his opposition
coalition provided they subscribe to his reformist agenda.
Political parties, now partnering the substantially weakened ruling
coalition, may switch allegiance and join Ibrahim. Crossing the floor is not
without precedent in Malaysia and even the beleaguered Badawi has come down
to saying that anyone crossing over from opposition benches would be
welcomed.
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=41587